Federal disaster aid distribution policies have worsened poverty, inequality, and health outcomes, according to a transdisciplinary study published by the Natural Hazards Center. This finding adds Puerto Rico to a body of scientific literature examining factors that lead to regional impoverishment after natural disasters.
The transdisciplinary study led by economist Dr. Antonio Fernós Sagebien of Universidad Interamericana, applied anthropologist Dr. Laura Gorbea of PR PASS Workshop, and public health expert Dr. Alison Chopel was conducted as part of a special initiative by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center, with support and funding from the National Science Foundation and the Centers for Disease Control. The study stands out for complementing statistical analysis with field interviews and observations that revealed potential mechanisms exacerbating inequality, poverty, and health deterioration. While reporting their findings, the research team has committed to disseminating actionable changes to mitigate this situation.
Three Years After Hurricane María
"When we began the study in October 2020—three years after Hurricane María's tragic landfall—over 70% of allocated federal recovery funds remained undistributed," explains Dr. Antonio Fernós Sagebien, co-principal investigator and professor of economics and finance at Universidad Interamericana Metro. "Given the hurricane's devastation, we anticipated rising poverty, yet U.S. Census Bureau data initially suggested declining poverty rates. Our quantitative analysis first examined the relationship between poverty and hurricane damage to resolve this contradiction."
Quantitative analysis confirmed that population shifts closely correlated with poverty changes. Municipalities experiencing population decline often showed reduced poverty rates. However, when controlling for population changes, a marked increase in poverty emerged post-María. While poverty had been decreasing in most municipalities between 2014-2017, it surged after the hurricane.
Unlike other U.S. jurisdictions, the study reveals that property damage in Puerto Rico neither correlates with nor explains rising poverty, showing an inverse relationship with impoverishment. Reported damage aligned more with pre-hurricane economic development and municipal infrastructure. "Monetized damage values reflect costlier buildings but fail to capture the proportional loss of housing and livelihoods. In fact, hurricane-related deaths proved to be the strongest indicator of municipal impoverishment," stated applied anthropologist and co-investigator Dr. Laura Gorbea, executive director of PR PASS Workshop, which provided learning opportunities for students during the research.
The study demonstrates how aid distribution processes exacerbate poverty. "Existing scientific literature focused on the 50 states. After examining poverty and economic inequality patterns, our analysis confirms this trend repeats in Puerto Rico," said public health expert and co-investigator Dr. Alison Chopel. Economist Dr. Fernós Sagebien added: "Data clearly shows municipalities receiving the most aid experienced the greatest poverty increases."
Recovery Contradictions During the Pandemic
Rising poverty creates economic inequality that impacts public health. Chopel describes this as a "cycle where poverty and inequity increase health risks, while illness exacerbates poverty." Using Puerto Rico Health Department COVID-19 reports, researchers found the strongest correlation between high FEMA/CDBG-DR aid (2017-2020) and COVID-19 case rates. The second strongest predictor was hurricane-related deaths, followed by municipal Gini coefficients. "This correlation supports our conclusion that economic recovery policies are disaster preparedness policies—and public health policies," asserts Chopel. Consequently, she warns that "pandemic response planning cannot ignore these policies' impacts, especially as they contribute to impoverishing and marginalizing thousands. Health strategies must incorporate socioeconomic realities to ensure equitable healthcare access."
Bureaucracy and Social Networks Impact Health
Community surveys and stories collected by researchers highlight how aid bureaucracy further traumatizes vulnerable applicants. "The invisible violence of governmental paperwork leaves tangible health impacts on individuals and communities," states Gorbea. Survivors endured delayed processes, shifting personnel, escalating documentation demands, and—if not disqualified—received insufficient funds for home repairs. Interviews also revealed health costs, gratitude toward neighbors, and strengthened community networks fostering local solidarity.
Case studies comparing two neighboring municipalities—one urban-adjacent, one rural—showed starkly different aid distribution patterns. Despite both awaiting infrastructure funds, the municipality with higher poverty and inequality represented the norm. Aid flows faster through established networks, leaving pre-María marginalized populations facing steeper barriers. The less impoverished municipality saw poverty decrease post-María. Only 4% of its sampled residents reported total home loss, yet received more federal aid but less NGO support. Conversely, 70% of rural interviewees experienced total losses, with nearly half reporting major home destruction, yet fewer received FEMA aid—deepening poverty.
Post-María relief distribution revealed that churches, NGOs, businesses, and neighbors provided more consistent solidarity in rural areas, mitigating poverty for connected individuals—a network that remained active during the pandemic. Conversely, in municipalities with declining poverty, participants felt increasingly marginalized as community solidarity faded and aid services became inaccessible. U.S. sociologist Dr. Junia Howell hypothesized that reliance on social networks may increase inequality, as networks typically comprise same-class individuals with similar resources, leaving isolated populations most vulnerable. Chopel notes isolation worsens physical/mental health risks, while Fernós Sagebien emphasizes population decline exacerbates isolation—especially among elders.
Surviving Beyond Aid Systems
The study notes spontaneous informal solidarity efforts—supporting housing, family, or survival economies—often conflict with governmental aid. Gorbea cites participants like Miguel, a single father and student who built a small home on family land, only to see it destroyed. Like others lacking permits or deeds, he became invisible to aid systems. "Announced help never reaches them," Gorbea comments.
Researchers expressed concern over the frequent recommendation of loans instead of grants. "Apply for an SBA loan first. If denied, return," participants reported. In this process, small informal livelihoods—like Margarita’s fritter sales, Héctor’s chickens, or Victoria’s sewing—became entry points for loans they’d never previously considered. Some accepted loans amid desperation; others cut expenses further or moved in with relatives while slowly rebuilding.
Recent Changes
Change is possible. Federal pandemic stimulus checks demonstrated how differently aid policies could be designed. Puerto Rico distributed pandemic aid within 15 months through multiple individual/business programs. Fernós Sagebien notes: "U.S. research suggests stimulus checks reduced poverty in the 50 states—though Puerto Rico's outcome may differ for reasons we've discussed."
Responding to Hurricane Ida, FEMA relaxed housing documentation requirements to expedite aid in Louisiana and Mississippi. "What remains unclear is how we implement these lessons locally. Today, over half of María's allocated emergency/recovery funds remain undistributed. We must pause and rethink recovery strategies," concludes Gorbea.
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